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The Political Climate: an ongoing commentary on the NH Primary and Climate Change

Certainties and Uncertainties about the IPCC Report

February 6th, 2007 by Carbon Coalition

Representative Peter Welch, a freshman Democrat from Vermont, has one-upped Barbara Boxer in her attempt to lead by example in the fight against global warming.  Boxer’s swapping bulbs and so is Welch, but he’s taking it one step further.  On Monday he announced that he’s making his two offices (one in Vermont and one in D.C.) “carbon neutral” by conserving energy, like turning down the heat, and buying $672 of carbon credits offsetting 56 tons of carbon dioxide.  Bill McKibben, an author on climate change, says “on the one hand, it’s true that one-by-one, we’re probably not going to get this job finished.  But on the other hand, what he did is incredibly significant because his office is in the House of Representatives.  That is where the work has to take place.”  (Read the entire story from the Boston Globe here.)

Today William Stevens, former science writer for the New York Times, contributed “On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt Gives Way to Certainty.”  Stevens describes a sort of climate change timeline that he believes now “describes the endpoint…of a progression” beginning in 1990 with scientists reporting evidence of human influence on warming, to the IPCC’s latest report declaring a 90-99% certainty that human activities are impacting climate change.  Stevens believes “it appears likely, if not certain, that whoever is elected president in 2008 will treat the issue seriously and act accordingly, thereby bringing the US into concert with most of the rest of the world.” 

New Hampshire Representative Jim Pilliod (R-Belmont) was also encouraged (or discouraged) by the IPCC’s recent report.  In this letter to the Concord Monitor Pilliod writes that each report since 1990 has “concluded the certainty of a human effect” on climate change.  Noting impacts to the water cycle–intense weather events, runoff, and standing water providing optimal breeding grounds for mosquitoes–Pilliod says he’s concerned with the threats to the public’s health.  “As a member of the medical community, it is my obligation to call on our elected officials to act to reduce global warming pollution.  The health of the public is at stake.”

This article in The Wall Street Journal also reports on the IPCC study, but unlike Stevens’ article this one brings up the issues of the troubling uncertainties.  Computer models used for the report based recent findings solely on the impact of heating the existing water in the world’s oceans, not taking into account current rising sea levels from the melting of glaciers.  Another uncertainty is the impact of clouds on climate change–clouds trap heat from the sun and warming oceans sends more water vapor into the air which is what creates clouds. 

Yesterday Rudy Giuliani filled a statement of formal candidacy with the Federal Election Commission declaring “I’m in this to win“…couldn’t he have come up with something a little more original?

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