The Political Climate: an ongoing commentary on the NH Primary and Climate Change

Sen. John Edwards may have officially claimed April as “Global Warming Action Month,” but this declaration is really only a statement of the obvious.  April is already on the calendar as “Earth Month,” and being an environmental issue that has become an international policy priority, it is only fitting that any month dedicated to the earth be dedicated to climate change (the U.S. has some serious catching up to do).  Climate change continues to make headlines–from Sheryl Crow’s global warming spotlight concert tour to the latest IPCC report–but this month it has gained even more attention (and I don’t think this is due to John Edwards).   In this week’s issue of Newsweek Gov. Schwarzenegger makes the cover with the caption “Save our Planet-or else.”  Time Magazine ran a special double issue of “The Global Warming Survival Guide: 51 Things You Can Do to Make a Difference,” and Vanity Fair features Leonardo DiCaprio on the cover of it’s latest issue the “Green Issue.”  Speaking at Georgetown University this past week, Schwarzenegger said “We have to make it mainstream, we have to make it sexy, we have to make it attractive so that everyone wants to participate.”  We seem to be well on our way to doing that,  but now how can we make it a governmental priority? 

Yesterday Mitt Romney gave his first major address on foreign policy.  He’s calling for greater resources for national defense, including higher military spending, and he’s also calling for “government investment in an ‘energy revolution’ to make the country more self-sufficient.”  That’s as far as he got, but an energy revolution?  Now that’s sexy.Eart

Politicians are often criticized for “flip-flopping” on issues, (take John Kerry for instance).   But sometimes changing positions–or more appropriately in this case, finally acknowleding an overwhelming scientific consensus–on an issue is a good thing.  While it’s due past, I was still rather surprised when I read this article in today’s Washington Post.  Yesterday, potential presidential candidate, Newt Gingrich, and past presidential runner-up, John Kerry, had a “friendly exchange” on Capitol Hill debating climate change in the U.S.  They disagreed on the way the U.S. should tackle climate change–Gingrich favors “tax incentives to reduce carbon dioxide” while Kerry favors “a government “cap and trade” program.”  What they didn’t debate, drum roll, was the science.  Gingrich who in 2005 was quoted saying “there’s no evidence to support global warming–none.  It’s essentially cultural anthropology” began yesterday’s exchange conceding ”that global warming is real, that humans have contributed to it and that ‘we should address it very actively.’” 

Gingrich isn’t the only unlikely person speaking out about global warming.  This morning ConocoPhillips joined the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, becoming the first major U.S. oil company to take the step.  The partnership is an alliance of big businesses and environmental groups working together to push President Bush to put a mandatory national cap on greenhouse gas emissions. As recently as January, Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive of ConocoPhillips, said there were other ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions “(rather) than have mandates saying specifically, ‘you have to do it this way and that.’”  Now, having joined the partnership he believes a “mandatory national framework” is our best bet. 

He may have pushed the Live Earth climate concert from Capitol Hill to the Garden State claiming “there has never been a partisan political event at the Capitol, and this is a partisan political event,” but with Gingrich and ConocoPhillips suddenly waking up, maybe Sen. James Inhofe will eventually join them in the real world.

He might not be eligible to run, but that isn’t keeping Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger out of the race.  The Gov. signed a bill moving California’s primary from June to February 5th in a move to bring the candidates to CA for something other than fundraising.  Schwarzenegger plans to hit the road, travelling to primary states in an effort to push issues such as global warming into the spotlight of the presidential debates.  And although he has not yet endorsed a particular candidate–likely to be either McCain or Giuliani–his influence on their campaigns is being felt.  Giuliani met with Schwarzenegger to talk about global warming, and a few days later he was answering questions from reporters on the subject.  (Read the entire story from The New York Times here.)

Yesterday TPC reported that early polling results tend to be unreliable.  Hillary Clinton’s campaign must be hoping this is true in 2007.  Recent polls have shown her popularity sliding in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and thought she may have raised the most money on the Democratic side, Obama received donations from twice the number of supporters.  Could this be why Clinton is making her fifth trip to the Granite State since February?  Just released, Sen. Clinton will be in Concord, Manchester and Hampton on Friday and Saturday.  For more information go here.

Sen. John Edwards is “dedicating April as Global Warming Action Month.”  He plans to participate in a Step It Up event and in honor of earth day his campaign is organizing “Reduce your carbon” local outreach events.  Listen to what he’s saying to Granite Staters about global warming here. 

Today The New York Times ran “Polling Early and Often,” an article examining the worth of so many early presidential polls.  Mark Penn, a pollster working for the Clinton campaign, says there’s just about ”a poll every day: I’ve never seen anything like it,” and with 19 months to go before the actual election, how much weight do these polls carry?  Penn believes it’s beneficial to track where voters are throughout a campaign, but most pollsters agree that “the polls are suspect, particularly in a year with so many candidates and no obvious frontrunner.”

This blog provides a perfect example of how polling can be unreliable.  Last week CNN (C) and Zogby (Z) each conducted a poll of New Hampshire Republicans.  With a two day gap between surveys, here are the results:

Giuliani–(Z)19 (c) 29

McCain–(Z)25 (C)29

Romney–(Z)25 (C)17

Undecided–(Z)17 (C)14

Either polling results this early on are indecisive, or else politicians aren’t the only people who like to “flip-flop.”