The Political Climate: an ongoing commentary on the NH Primary and Climate Change

Hurricane Dean was the third most intense Atlantic hurricane ever measured, and it ravaged Caribbean islands earlier this week and made landfall in Mexico yesterday with winds of 165 miles per hour.  Now six of the top ten most powerful hurricanes ever recorded have occurred within the last ten years.

Chris Mooney writes in The Daily Green blog: “This staggering decade has occurred in part because of anomalously warm ocean temperatures in the hurricane-prone regions. Many scientists question whether you can explain these warm anomalies without invoking global warming as at least part of the cause.”  One can only wonder how the increasing frequency of intense hurricanes has changed public opinion about climate change.

John Krosnick conducts research at Stanford University focusing extensively on the public opinion of climate change.  In an interview with E&E TV, Krosnick discusses the two ways in which he believes people come to the conclusion that climate change is real.  First is that they listen to a majority of scientists.  Second is that they themselves pay attention to the changing environment in which they live and breathe.  Though there is no proof that climate change caused the mega-storm, Hurricane Dean is a devastating reminder of our changing climate.

Krosnick also found that the general public “absolutely” wants government to get involved to combat climate change.  This has been clear to New Hampshire since the climate change resolution passed in 164 New Hampshire towns this March.  “The wonderful thing for politicians” Krosnick replied to a question about the 2008 elections, “is the fact that such huge majorities of Americans are on same side.  They believe it’s a problem.  They believe it needs to be addressed.”  These ideas are not new on the pages of TPC.

Both TPC and Senator Barack Obama have been recently discussing biofuels - TPC in our blog entry “Memo to Candidates: We Don’t Grow Corn in New Hampshire.  We Grow Wood“ and Obama at a house party in Salem on Monday.  Obama told the crowd that the federal government should invest in cellulosic ethanol made from wood chips, an industry with potential in New Hampshire.  Obama also suggested that the rise in food costs (a product of increased corn ethanol production) would subside as high prices would only encourage farmers to grow more corn.

The specifics of Senator Obama’s support for corn and cellulosic ethanol are not yet outlined as part of a climate change plan, but it is clear that he is a fan of biofuels and would like the federal government to invest in them.

NASA’s revision of the top ten hottest years in the U.S. does not alter the climate change debate whatsoever.  TPC usually does not waste time engaging in disputes about the legitimacy of climate change.  Oh well, we are today.  Canadian blogger Stephen Mcintyre of Climate Audit discovered a mistake in the yearly U.S. temperature calculations conducted by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Sciences.  The error was corrected and the new calculations found that 1934, not 1998, was the hottest year in America.

Global warming skeptics seized upon this error as proof of their usual charge that global warming is a hoax.  What they conveniently did not mention (it could have just been another case of acute amnesia) was that NASA’s miscalculation was fairly insignificant on a global scale.  In no way does this debunk the legitimate climate change evidence found in scientific reports like the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.  James Hansen explained that the correction in U.S. temperatures only altered global averages by one-one-thousandth of a degree.

To quote a favorite Mitt Romney tag line: ”They don’t call it America warming, they call it global warming.” -July 2 Blog

Blogging skeptics, like Noel Sheppard of Myth Busters, were shocked to hear that “a government agency is actually participating in a fraud against the American people by withholding information crucial to a major policy issue now facing the nation.”  What a shock!

But wait, this sounds all too familiar…government withholding information from the nation…hmm.  That sounds similar to something else I heard in the news recently about how Dr. Richard Carmona, the former Surgeon General was not allowed to talk about the danger climate change poses to public health.  The past twenty years of strategic global warming denial is comprehensively outlined in a Newsweek article “Global Warming Deniers: A Well-Funded Machine.” 

The “Fox Attacks” website has come out with a new video asking Home Depot to stop advertising on Fox.  The website is petitioning that “If Home Depot is serious about protecting the environment, they must stop advertising on Fox — a network that consistently spreads misinformation about and denies the existence of global warming.”  The video is comprised of Fox news footage covering a range of global warming skepticisms including guest Sterling Burnett of the NCPA saying “You don’t go see Joseph Goebbels’ films to see the truth about Nazi Germany.  You don’t want to go see Al Gore’s film to see the truth about global warming.”  The Sierra Club is trying to pit one corporate behemoth against another with their Fox Attacks project.  Sometimes these “grassroots” campaigns catch on; many times they die on the vine. 

But what do you do when your next-door neighbor expresses skepticism trying to tell you that global warming is a hoax or that it’s a natural cycle caused by the sun?  The Gristmill blog has a very helpful series titled “How to talk to a Climate Skeptic” which contains responses to the most common skeptical arguments on global warming.  Arguments range from “There is no evidence”, “What about mid-century cooling?” and “Global warming is nothing new!”  Here’s one that I found helpful the other day:

Objection: Current warming is just part of a natural cycle.

Answer: While it is undoubtedly true that there are natural cycles and variations in global climate, those who insist that current warming is purely natural - or even mostly natural - have two challenges.

• First, they need to identify the mechanism behind this alleged natural cycle.  Absent a forcing of some sort, there will be no change in global energy balance.  The balance is changing, so natural or otherwise, we need to find this mysterious cause.
• Second, they need to come up with an explanation for why a 35% increase in the second most important greenhouse gas does not affect the global temperature.  Theory predicts temperature will rise given an enhanced greenhouse effect, so how or why is it not happening?  Read more.

The blog has arguments categorized by stages of denial, scientific topics, types of argument and levels of sophistication.  With links to graphs, statistics and documents, the information is comprehensive and very helpful to become more versed in how to respond to our favorite Fox-like skeptics.   

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), which has been leading the scientific community in environmental research and outreach since 1969, will release a report tomorrow detailing the most up to date projections for how global warming could affect NH (bookmark www.climatechoices.org and check out the report tomorrow to hear what they have to say).  In their media advisory, UCS says their comprehensive study examines how coastal areas, fisheries, forests, agriculture, winter recreation and human health could be seriously affected by climate change. 

In The Changing Northeast Climate summary from their 2006 report, the scientists projected that with emissions continuing at the current high levels, NH summers could feel like the current summer climate of North Carolina by the end of the century while snow-covered days could decrease by half.  The team of leading scientists emphasizes that the choices we make today and in the coming years can determine the severity of impacts on the region’s economy and quality of life. 

It’s no surprise with news like this and the Live Earth Concert that many political and environmental news sites were focused on climate change and the presidential candidates this past weekend.  Articles from both Greenwire and The Washington Post noted the democratic candidates’ Virtual Town Hall where they answered questions and detailed their plans to combat global warming.  This is a great way to compare the democratic candidates on the issue; hopefully we’ll see a similar debate among the republican candidates soon.  Sen. Clinton, who will be all over NH this weekend, emphasized that climate change is ”obviously one of my highest priorities.”  We hope our FOTPC’s will be out in full force this weekend to ask her and all of the candidates what their plans are!